Posted by Elena del Valle on October 14, 2013
Three researchers examined TIGER indexes for 23 countries
Is the world economy improving? Yes, sort of. After examining key economic indicators of a group of advanced and emerging markets three researchers concluded the economic turn around remains slow and uncertain. Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda and Arnav Sahu, authored the October 2013 Update to TIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery published this month by The Brookings Institution and the Financial Times.
Growing confidence in advanced economies and stable growth in emerging markets are driving the economic climate. The analysts are convinced that the economy “remains just a shock or two away from turning into another slump.” They shared TIGER indexes for 23 countries and charts for the indicators indexes, each including real activity, financial and confidence indicators. The countries are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.
The Overall Growth Index, the Real Activity Index and other charts for the United States, for example, show a deep slump in 2009 with varying degrees of recovery since. The confidence index was the most worrisome.
It appears the worst is over for advanced economies including Europe, Japan, United States, and United Kingdom. The latter “is experiencing surprisingly good growth.” Overall in advanced economies although jobs creation is weak and financial conditions are mixed confidence in the private sector has increased and inflation is modest. We're not out of danger, seems to be the cautionary message which points to the need for growth.
At the same time, emerging market economies, such as China, India and Brazil, which had stopped growing are looking stronger. Private sector confidence in these countries had been poor recently and has improved somewhat.
Eswar Prasad is senior fellow, Global Economy and Development new century chair in International Trade and Economics. Karim Foda is research associate, Global Economy and Development, and Arnav Sahu is a student at Cornell University.